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China's petroleum import dependency to top 50% in 2010

www.chinanews.cn 2005-02-16 14:55:33

Chinanews, Feb. 16 - Gao Shixian, director of the Energy Economy and
Development Strategy Research Center of the Energy Research Institute
(ERI) of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), indicated
in London yesterday that China's petroleum import would reach 180 million
to 200 million tons in 2010, making its import dependency over 50%. He
called upon China to promote energy pluralism as one of its national
strategies.
According to annual statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics,
China imported 120 million tons of crude oil in 2004, an increase of
34.8% over the previous year. It is also the first time that China's
annual crude oil import topped 100 million tons.
At an international energy meeting held in London yesterday, Gao Shixian
gave a more definite time of 2010 when China's crude oil import would
reach 200 million tons. He predicted that, in 2010, the aggregate
petroleum demand of China would reach 350 million tons to 380 million
tons, and China's petroleum import dependency would reach 51.4% to 52.6%.
China's oil import dependency was only 29.1% in 2000.
Gao Shixian said that China paid an extra cost of at least 100 million US
dollars for the "irrational increases" in the international crude oil
price last year. The current growth trend of China's domestic energy
consumption would also continue. He claimed that China had 40 million
private cars at present, and this figure would continue to grow when the
population base and the average car ownership per family in developed
countries are considered.
Gao Shixian also said coal consumption accounted for two thirds of China
current energy consumption volume. However, natural gas is rapidly
catching up and taking over while coal consumption actually saw its
market share decline. He welcomed the gradual shift to natural gas in
China, and claimed that natural gas would account for 20% of the total
energy consumption in 2010. He also pointed out that natural gas import
would reach 20 to 25 billion cubic meters in 2010.
The fact is, the Chinese Government has already put in great effort to
achieve "energy pluralism". It is counting heavily on nuclear power. A
group headed by the Huaneng Group is actively promoting the
commercialization of new-type nuclear power stations. Maybe comments from
other international experts participating in the conference could help
relax Mr. Gao Shixian a little. A global petroleum strategy analyst from
Deutsche Bank forecasted that the growth rate of China's petroleum
consumption this year could be slower than that of last year.

E-mail: zhangqinghua@chinanews.com.cn Tel: 8610-88387443 Fax:
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